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Extra info for A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report)
8). From each of these Type A distributions, 100 values are obtained using LHS. These values are combined with one of the 59 values selected for the RfD to produce a resulting distribution composed of 100 28 1 3. 8-Subjective Fixed quantity probability distributions representing the state of knowledge about fixed but uncertain quantities. 0*I(mean) aLog-uniform distribution. bTriangular distribution. "niform distribution. T 60 70 90 T 7 10 14 values for the HQ. 10). 5, top). It is also possible to determine a 95 percent subjective confidence interval of the percentile for a given value of the HQ.
These methods are discussed and illustrated by Hora and Iman (1989) and Ortiz et al. (1991). Chapter 16 in Meyer and Booker (1991) provides examples of aggregation methods. 10 4. ELICITATION OF EXPERT JUDGMENT Review and Communication of the Results of the Elicitations The entire elicitation process (Steps 1through lo), including results, must be documented. Each expert should be sent a written record of his elicitation and results for review and comment. Modifications to the assessments should be made if requested by the expert.
1. The judgments of Expert A regarding the probability of formation of ozone-induced mild lesions among Los Angeles children after exposure to ozone for one season. 10 Ozone Concentration (ppm) Fig. 2. Judgments of Expert A in exposure-response format. events, and effect of time variation; degree of repair between ozone seasons; interaction with other pollutants; health significance of effects; populations a t risk; and research needs. No attempt was made to develop a consensus among the experts.